Analysts Forecast Gold Prices for 2026 Amid Economic Uncertainty
Gold prices are projected to remain volatile through 2026, with analysts citing inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks as main influences.
Analysts Project Gold Prices for 2026
Gold prices could see continued volatility through 2026, as economic and geopolitical factors drive demand for the precious metal, according to multiple financial analysts and investment banks.
Industry research from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and the World Gold Council suggests gold may trade between $2,200 and $2,500 per ounce by 2026, depending on monetary policy, inflation, and global financial stability.
Key Drivers Impacting the Forecast
- Inflation and Interest Rates: Rising global inflation rates and uncertainties over central bank policy responses are impacting investor appetite for gold. The World Gold Council noted in a recent report that sustained inflation could boost gold demand as a hedge.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts and political risks in regions such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East have historically supported gold's safe-haven status. According to UBS, such tensions could keep prices elevated in the medium term.
- Currency Fluctuations: Volatility in the US dollar remains a central factor. A weaker dollar often supports higher gold prices, as gold becomes more affordable to holders of other currencies.
Market Performance and Investor Sentiment
The price of gold reached an all-time high of $2,450 per ounce in May 2024, before retreating amid shifts in global bond yields and economic data. According to Refinitiv data, gold holdings in global exchange-traded funds have increased more than 12% year-to-date.
Central banks have also remained net buyers of gold for a twelfth consecutive year, with the People’s Bank of China and the Reserve Bank of India leading acquisitions, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Forecast Scenarios and Expert Views
Morgan Stanley’s annual commodities outlook projects a base-case scenario of $2,350 per ounce in 2026, with potential to exceed $2,500 if inflation persists and rate cuts are implemented faster than expected. Bank of America analysts highlight the risk of a drop below $2,200 if global interest rates remain high and recession risks ease.
“Gold’s trajectory hinges on macroeconomic policy decisions and the resilience of economic growth across major economies,” said Joni Teves, precious-metals strategist at UBS. “Investors should expect heightened price swings amid ongoing uncertainties.”
